BBOTD – July 31st

James Boyle
July 31, 2012

Unsurprisingly, more frustration to report from Saturday, with White Frost, who we backed at 16/1, going down narrowly at York. It was a cracking effort and he just found a very talented winner that bit too good, but the handicapper will surely put him up for that run and whether we should keep him onside for future engagements remains to be seen. This was a missed opportunity and with a stronger jockey, he could well have held on (Michael Hills is grand until the finish; too weak). The theory of him being a potentially better horse going around a bend is proven as far as I'm concerned and it'll be interesting to see where he heads to next. He's a really good performer on his day, but needs plenty in his favour to show his best.

Dancing Freddy, Farlow and Hawk Mountain were never involved in their races, with none getting things to suit and it would be unwise to judge them too harshly. The latter two, especially, will remain horses to keep onside. Farlow needs to be ridden prominently (wasn't here) and Hawk Mountain needs a real test of stamina, which he just didn't get on this occasion. He'll be on-song for the Ebor meeting, that's certain.

-4.00pts on the day. Form of last 10 selections; 0-2-3-2-8-3-2-0-0-8 (0 winners & 5 places). Sickening.

A watching brief at Goodwood today is the smartest thing to do for numerous reasons, but I've found one that we should take a punt on and hopefully he could go well. Also hoping that some biases pop up for us to take advantage of for the next few days. Have a good day folks and there'll be plenty more to get involved with over the rest of the meeting (weather depending). All the best, but don't get involved too heavily today.


2:00 Goodwood - Cai Shen - 1pt @ 7/1 (General)

Competitive stuff here and Cai Shen is fancied to get the in-form Hannon/Hughes combination yet another Goodwood winner. This 4-year-old colt is admirably consistent, having run well on each of his outings this season and has shown plenty of hints that his current rating of 105 was not an insurmountable one when the cards would fall his way. They could well do so here, with a solid pace being likely and he should be able to get a decent racing position from stall ten. This will be his fourth outing in little more than a month, so how he will handle that has to be up for debate, but he's a reliable sort and comes here on the back of a cracking 4th in a Group 2 at Ascot last time out. There's no doubting that he was suited by the run of the race that day, but he's not the sort to instantly quicken and he's much better suited to accepting a lead in a bigger field. That was also over a mile, and this speed-demanding 1m 2f should also play to his hands a lot more than Ascot's mile did, though he does like it there; second in the Britannia last year & running on, close-up sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup this season. He also has good track form to his name from his only outing here, when finishing 4-lengths off the speed in the Totesport Mile last season, where he was again seen running on (under a considerate ride and got little luck in-running). Overall, there's enough in here to suggest that he can play a big part and it's not a race filled with overly well-handicapped rivals, so it could be an ideal opportunity to nab his first handicap victory. The usual stakes will do and hopefully he will win!


Result - Nowhere @ 7/1; Met bother in-running, losing all chance early.