BBOTD – Sept’ 13th

James Boyle
September 13, 2012

No joy with Compton. He travelled sweetly, again a bit too keen, but got bumped into a few times on either side once set down for the drive and that was that. The race was not run to suit anyway, but he had plenty more to give and got an easy time of it from Jim Crowley after they met that bit of interference. The winner had lots in hand given how the race went, so it may not have made much of a difference and the pre-race rain would have hindered our fellow as well. He's one to keep on side for the rest of the season and will be a nice price again. If we don't get our money back on him I'd be surprised. He's better than this outing would suggest and just did not get a chance to show it, those few bumps knocking the enthusiasm away.

-2.00pts on the day. Form of last 10 selections; 3-0-8-8-7-6-2-6-3-0 (0 winners & 3 places).

Trappy Thursday is surely in effect, especially at Doncaster where there's plenty of contests that I couldn't go near. I've found two selections, on there and one at Epsom, and if they run to the level that I believe they can then they should outrun their prices and hopefully trouble the judge. One could be a non-trier though and the other has plenty of rivals and a statistically modest draw to overcome, so they are not ones to go head over heels to get involved with. Eventually things will start panning out as I hope and when they do, that's when the proper winners will return. It may sound stupid to many, but I do not think that I'm picking too badly at the moment, I am just struggling to judge the race circumstances correctly and in truth, that's where the luck comes in - it has been non-existent. One guy on another public forum says that I'm never confident about anything I put up on here and that that doesn't install any members with much faith. I can see where he's coming from and understand the comment, however I don't mean to come across that way. I just want to err on the side of caution mostly and prevent those who may over-stake based on my confidence avoid making such a mistake. Despite the bad results of recent times making this statement sound stupid, the last thing I ever want to do is end up costing people money by getting overly enthusiastic about one selection or another - it would most likely end up in long-term losses. One of the things that I'm absolutely, 100% confident in is my ability to show a long-term profit and everything will, eventually return back on the right track. I just can't do anything right at the moment. I have no idea why, as I'm putting in so many hours to try and make sure that I'm picking the right ones, but it isn't happening at all and it's sadly costing you, and I, money. In the coming months, I'm sure that normality will resume and the winners will flow, we just need to bide our time - despite that being very tough, I know - and hope that the good run is just around the corner. Should the losses not be recouped by the new year, everyone's payments will be stopped off and accounts will be left open until the point that the monies lost are returned. It will happen, it always does, it's just a matter of when and with recent luck going against us as it has, I've got no idea of when it'll come good. It will though, I would bet my life on it. Take it easy guys, that's enough of me ranting!


4:05 Doncaster - Misplaced Fortune - 1pt @ 33/1 (General)

Anyone looking at the form of Misplaced Fortune would be entirely correct in saying that she's an exposed performer but when connections apply a visor, she turns into a completely different animal. From a total of 51 career outings, this Nigel Tinkler trained 7-year-old mare has won on 7 occasions and placed a further 16 times. However, she has worn the visor on and off on 14 occasions in handicap company and that has resulted in 5 of her career wins, the overall form figures reading; 1-1-2-4-2-1-5-1-2-3-0-4-1-4. That is an obviously impressive string of form and the "0" came when she was only 3-lengths behind Hoof It over 5f at this track back in 2010, when rated just 1lb lower than today and 5f is not her trip, especially in such hot company. Today, interestingly, is the first time that she will have the visor on board this season and that was the case in 2011 as well, as it didn't come back until September. She was subject to strong market support when it did return and would have won the race but for challenging in the wrong part of the track. She made no mistake next time out, with the visor retained, when landing a decent Pontefract handicap off 81 and further enhancing her record with the headgear. She's quite a way higher in the weights this time around than last, but has been holding her form excellently and even managed to defy a mark of 84 back in May when winning a Ripon handicap that has worked out well (second improved about 20lbs since). It was her first success without a visor as well and showed that despite her age and exposed profile, she was capable of running to a very decent level. Consecutive places off marks of 89 & 90 followed, before she failed to land a blow on each of her last two outings. However, she got no run in each of those and is easily forgiven for not producing her best. This race represents a drop in grade and although she doesn't have much in hand off her current rating (effectively 87 after Dale Swift's claim is taken into account) the opposition are mainly exposed or out-of-form sorts who don't exactly have much to work with either. The market leader and the few three-year-old's are ones who you could make cases for with regard to finding more off their current marks but none are overly appealing at the prices. Misplaced Fortune is coming here in better form than her last two outings would suggest and should prove capable of outrunning her odds if stall 7 isn't an inconvenience (high drawn runners usually favoured here). There is a chance that this could be a tune-up for the Ayr Silver Cup, in which she finished third of 25 back in 2010 (winner on her side) but the visor generally indicates that she's out to give her best and hopefully that's the case again. One thing's for sure, regardless of the performance, she shouldn't be a 33/1 shot and is worthy of some small support. Prodigality is the most likely winner but dominates too much of the market to be worthy of consideration. It wouldn't be a surprise to see David Elsworth's Elusive Flame run well either if stall 4 isn't an issue, as she showed oceans of speed over a stiff 7f last time out and could well benefit from the drop in trip, and for having William Buick on board. She'd be my second choice at the prices, though has plenty on as well if she's to end up victorious (she's only a three-year-old filly). It'll also be interesting to see what way Dickie's Lad goes in the market, as he's back to his optimum trip having bombed over 5f at York last time out and on his three outings before that (only one over this trip). He's very well-handicapped off 85 if back to the same form as when running a close-up fifth of 19 at York (6f) in May but has shown nothing of late. Then again, he is a Kevin Ryan trained animal and they "mysteriously" bounce back to form at some point. Ryan's 8-235 record at Doncaster is massively off-putting at the same time and I am going to hold fire on backing his gelding until he shows some of that old spark. Previous selection Oneladyowner is yet another that I want to see run well enough, as he's on a winnable mark and should be coming to hand again soon, though this looks a bit hot for him and he can get swept off his feet handily enough. Overall, I think it's worthwhile to take a punt on Misplaced Fortune giving her best again and hopefully she'll do that.


Result - 2nd @ 16/1; Ran a stormer and looked likely to win at one point.


4:15 Epsom - Space Station - 1pt @ 8/1 (General)

Space Station hasn't been showing his finishing prowess of old so far this season but the handicapper has been very lenient with Simon Dow's 6-year-old of late and knowing what his yard is like, it will not be long until he's winning again. His recent form is quite uninspiring but having started the season as an 86-rated animal who wouldn't be going anywhere off that mark, connections may have made it their business to get him back to something workable and if that's true, they've done it in fine style. He's now rated at just 73 and having shown hints of returning to form when given an "easy" ride at Folkestone last time out, the time to catch him is incoming. This will be the first time that he drops to a C5 contest since he won easily in first time blinkers (regular apparel now) back in June of 2010 and the drop in grade will certainly help him to regain that competitive edge, having tackled some useful opposition this season. This track brings out the best in him too, with two of his four career successes coming over C&D. The last of those was his most recent career win, in June of last year, when seen bolting up under Neil Callan off a mark of 81. He tried to repeat the feat on his penultimate outing but was easy to back that day and was never put into the race, though most of those held up struggled to land any sort of blow regardless. I would not trust Simon Dow as far as I'd throw him, and that wouldn't be very far, but he's running out of time to get Space Station in the winners' enclosure once again and all looks primed for a big one here. He seems to go well at this time of year also and Seb Sanders knows him thoroughly, though equally knows how to stop him and has a horrible record for the yard this year (1-23, as opposed to Hayley Turner who's 6-29 for Dow this year but she's engaged elsewhere today). Sanders does at least have an excellent track record, with 24% of his mounts here in the past five years ending up victorious (13-54; just 1-17 this year) and that's encouraging. At his best, he'd wipe the floor with the lot of these but it remains to be seen what level he can run to when fully wound up and we'll only know how good he'll perform here based on the betting. If he does drift, he's going to lose, it's as simple as that with this yard if they're lining one up and based on how he has been handled this year I firmly believe that he's being readied for a touch. It may be now, it may be not, but it's definitely the time of year to start backing him again and the price today, in this modest company, warrants us taking a chance on him. He has also been off the track for 32 days and his four wins have come from breaks of 33, 26, 52 and 27 days respectively, which I would note as being another positive, though could just be a coincidence for all I know (Dow would be the man to ask!). The minimum stakes are all that can be played given the obvious risk involved but if he's running on his merit and comes here fully fit, then he really should be playing a part in the proceedings. He's too well-handicapped not to and isn't regressing. Great Shot is the obvious danger and was really well-backed in a better race at Goodwood last time out, on what was his first run over a sprint trip. However, he's plenty short enough and just isn't worth backing.


Result - 7th @ 8/1; Didn't show much, maybe he's just gone at the game.